The Upcoming US Election

For those interested in reliable predictors for the upcoming US elections, one of the best is THE IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS.

This predicts that the Democrats will win control of the House, while the Republicans will retain control of the Senate.

Another fairly reliable indicator, but one which is inclined never to predict anything, is the
New York Times.

To be safe, it says both the House and the Senate are too close to call, so it can’t be wrong.

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From reading the local newspapers, it appears that many people here do not understand the US system, what this election is about, or what impact it might have.

The US is burdened with a House, a Senate, and a President.

House members must stand for election every two years; Senate members must stand for election every six years; and the President must stand for election every four years.

This year, the entire House and a few Senators are up for re-election. No matter what happens, Bush will remain President.

Still, the House and Senate matter.

No law can be passed unless the House and the Senate both agree. If they both try to pass a law, but their proposed versions of the law differ by a single word, the law does not pass.

For example, if the House passes the law, ‘There shall be a solid wall built on the border,’ and the Senate passes the law, ‘A solid wall shall be built on the border,’ neither law passes.

When (as has been the case since 2000) one party controls the Presidency, the House, and the Senate, it is easy for the President to propose laws that are quickly rubber-stamped: both the House and Senate pass the law with the exact wording proposed by the President.

So the speed of the current US descent might be slowed if the Democrats win either the House or the Senate, and the Iowa Electronic Markets are predicting that there is a 70% chance that this will happen.